بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر درآمدهای مالیات بر ارزش‌افزوده: رویکرد اقتصادسنجی فضایی

احتشامی، صادق؛ الفتی، سمیرا. (1395). «بررسی طرح تحول نظام مالیاتی». هفتمین کنفرانس بین‌المللی اقتصاد و مدیریت. https://civilica.com/doc/536198/

اکبری، ‌نعمت‌الله؛ توسلی، ‌ناهید. (1387). «تحلیل تأثیر عوارض شهرداری‌ها بر قیمت مسکن: مطالعۀ موردی شهر اصفهان (یک رهیافت اقتصادسنجی فضایی)». اقتصاد مقداری، (5)16. 47-64. http://noo.rs/6ZamP

اکبری، نعمت‌الله. (1380). تحلیل فضایی تقاضای اجتماعی برای آموزش عالی در ایران. رسالۀ دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی دانشگاه تربیت‌مدرس.

سبحانیان، سید محمدهادی؛ معماریان، محمدحسین؛ بحری، پویا. (1399). «واکاوی مالیات بر ارزش‌افزوده و اثرات آن بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران». راهبرد اقتصادی، 9(35)، 325-358. https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_130156.html

شرکت، افسانه؛ بانوئی، علی‌اصغر؛ جهانگرد، اسفندیار؛ نصیری‌اقدم، علی. (1400). «شناسایی مناطق و فعالیت‌های اولویت‌دار در ایجاد ظرفیت بالقوۀ مالیات بر ارزش‌افزوده». مدل‌سازی اقتصادی، 15(56)، 15-30. 10.30495/eco.2022.1943985.2588

عرب‌مازار، علی‌اکبر؛ ایزدخواستی، حجت؛ یاوری، سارا. (1400). «بررسی اثر تبدیل ساختاری بر کارایی وصول مالیات بر ارزش‌افزوده در استان‌های ایران». پژوهش‌نامۀ اقتصادی، 21(82). 11-47. 10.30495/eco.2022.1943985.2588

عسگری، علی؛ اکبری، نعمت‌اله. (1380). «روش‌شناسی اقتصادسنجی فضایی؛ تئوری و کاربرد». مجلۀ پژوهشی علوم انسانی دانشگاه اصفهان، 12(2-1)، 93-122. https://sid.ir/paper/24916/fa

علی‌مرادی افشار، پروین؛ صادقی، سید کمال؛ پورعباداللهان کویچ، محسن؛ محمدزاده، پرویز؛ کریمی، زهرا. (1396). «بررسی عوامل اقتصادی مؤثر بر دموکراسی در کشورهای در حال توسعه با استفاده از رهیافت اقتصادسنجی فضایی». اقتصاد مقداری، (1)14، 119-142. https://doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2017.20454.1537

کریمی پتانلار، سعید؛ خطیبی، یاسر. (1399). «اثر مالیات بر ارزش‌افزوده بر ثبات اقتصاد بخش عمومی در ایران (با رویکرد ارتقای اخلاق و فرهنگ مالیاتی)». اخلاق در علوم و فناوری، ۱۵(۲)، 70-75. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.22517634.1399.15.2.9.7

مهاجری، پریسا. (1397). «سنجش ظرفیت مالیات بر ارزش‌افزودۀ مناطق با استفاده از الگوی داده-ستاندۀ چندمنطقه‌ای». تحلیل‌های اقتصادی توسعۀ ایران، 6(2)، 9-30. https://doi.org/10.22051/edp.2019.25314.1200

نجفی‌زاده، سیده فاطمه؛ علیزاده، محمد؛ دلفان، محبوبه. (1403). «تحلیلی بر عوامل مؤثر بر مالیات بر ارزش‌افزوده: رویکرد اقتصادسنجی فضایی». اقتصاد مقداری، (انتشار آنلاین). https://doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2024.45885.2605

هاشمی، سید علیرضا؛ خوشکار، فرزین. (1401). «اثرات توزیعی و درآمدی مالیات بر ارزش‌افزوده (نرخ 9 درصد) در بخش تولید». رویکردهای پژوهشی نوین در مدیریت و حسابداری، 6(21)، 208-231. https://majournal.ir/index.php/ma/article/view/1205

References

Abimbola Ayodeji, C. O. L. E., Bola Olatunbosun AROYEWUN, D. T., SOETAN, A., & AKINTOLA, A. F. (2021). “Value Added Tax and Economic Growth in Nigeria 2004-2018ˮ. American Journal of Multidisciplinary Research & Development (AJMRD), 3(12), 09-13.‏ https://www.ajmrd.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/B3120913.pdf

Adereti, S. A., Sanni, M. R., & Adesina, J. A. (2011). “Value added tax and economic growth of Nigeriaˮ. European Journal of humanities and social sciences, 10(1), 456-471.‏ https://www.scirp.org/reference/referencespapers?referenceid=3065495

Adhikari, B. (2020). “Does a value‐added tax increase economic efficiency?ˮ Economic Inquiry, 58(1), 496-517.‏ https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12847

Akbari, N. (2001). Spatial analysis of social demand for higher education in Iran. PhD thesis in economics. Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University. [In Persian].

Akbari, N., & Tavasouli, N. (2008). “An Analysis of Municipality Tax Effect on Housing Price A case of Esfahan (A Spatial Econometric Approach)ˮ. Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics, 5(1), 47-64. [In Persian]. https://www.sid.ir/paper/110795/en

Alavuotunki, K., Haapanen, M., & Pirttilä, J. (2019). “The effects of the value-added tax on revenue and inequalityˮ. The Journal of development studies, 55(4), 490-508.‏ http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2017.1400015

Alimoradi Afshar, P., Sadeghi, S. K., Pour Ebadollahan, M., Mohammadzadeh, P., & Karimi, Z. (2017). “The Impacts Of Effective Economic Factors On Democracy In Developing Countries: A Spatial Econometric Approachˮ. 14(1), 119-142. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2017.20454.1537

Ananda, F., & Putri, D. (2022). “The Effect Of Inflation And Economic Growth On Value Added Taxes At The Pratama Tax Service Office 2016-2019ˮ. Jurnal Pundi, 6(1). https://dx.doi.org/10.31575/jp.v6i1.379

Anselin, L., & Bera, A. K. (1998). “Introduction to spatial econometrics ˮ. Handbook of applied economic statistics, 237(5). https://www.scirp.org/reference/ReferencesPapers?ReferenceID=1410066

Arabmazar, A. A. , Izadkhasti, H. and Yavari, S. (2021). “Investigating the Effect of Structural Transformation on the Efficiency of VAT Collection in the Provinces in Iranˮ. Economics Research, 21(82), 11-47. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22054/joer.2022.58224.939

Asgari, A., & Akbari, N. A. (2002). “Spatial Econometrics Methods: Theory And Applicationˮ. Research Bulletin Of Isfahan University (Humanities), 12(1-2), 93-122. [In Persian]. https://sid.ir/paper/24916/en

Ayenew, W. (2016). “Determinants of tax revenue in Ethiopia (Johansen co-integration approach)ˮ. International Journal of Business, Economics and Management, 3(6), 69-84. https://www.nrb.org.np/contents/uploads/2022/11/vol-34_iss_2_art2.pdf

Ayoub, Z., & Mukherjee, S. (2019). “Value Added Tax and economic growth: An empirical study of China perspectiveˮ. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 8(2), 235-242. http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v8i2.10155

Bari, E., Khan, T. I., & Ullah, M. S. (2022). “The Value-Added Tax (VAT) Improvement Program: Raising the operational efficacy of the VAT administration in Bangladeshˮ. Oxfam SUPRO (Sushasoner Jonny Procharavizan/Campaign for Good Governance). http://dx.doi.org/10.21201/2022.9110

Bikas, E., & Andruskaite, E. (2013). “Factors affecting value added tax revenueˮ. European Scientific Journal, 9(19). https://www.academia.edu/61252434/Factors_Affecting_Value_Added_Tax_Revenue

Brautigam, D., Fjeldstad, O. H., & Moore, M. (Eds.). (2008). Taxation and state-building in developing countries: Capacity and consent. Cambridge University Press.‏ http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511490897

Cashin, D. B. (2017). “The household expenditure response to a consumption tax rate increase (Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-035)ˮ. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2017.035

Chan, S. G. (2018). “The role of country governance on value-added tax and inequalityˮ. Ekonomie a Management, 21(4), 79-93. https://doi.org/10.15240/tul/001/2018-4-006

 Chen, H., Liu, S., Wang, J., & Wu, Z. (2022). “The effect of geographic proximity on corporate tax avoidance: Evidence from Chinaˮ. Journal of Corporate Finance, 72, 102131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.102131

Chindengwike, J. (2022). “The Influence of Value Added Tax Revenue on Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries ˮ. Journal of Global Economy, 18(4), 289-310. http://dx.doi.org/10.1956/jge.v18i4.668

Čížek, P., Lei, J., & Ligthart, J. E. (2017). “Do neighbours influence value‐added‐tax introduction? A spatial duration analysisˮ. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 79(1), 25-54. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12136

Di Caro, P., & Sacchi, A. (2020). “The heterogeneous effects of labor informality on VAT revenues: Evidence on a developed countryˮ. Journal of Macroeconomics, 63, 103190.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103190

Ebrill, M. L. P., Keen, M. M., & Perry, M. V. P. (2001). The modern VAT. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781589060265.071

Ehteshami, S &  Olfati, S. (2015). “Review of the transformation plan of the tax system”, The 7th International Conference on Economics and Management. [In Persian]. https://civilica.com/doc/536198/

Elhorst, J. P. (2014). Spatial econometrics: from cross-sectional data to spatial panels (Vol. 749), Heidelberg: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40340-8

Giesecke, J., & Tran, N. H. (2012). “A general framework for measuring VAT compliance ratesˮ. Applied Economics, 44(15), 1867-1889. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.554382

Godin, M., & Hindriks, J. (2015). “A Review of critical issues on tax design and tax administration in a global economy and developing countriesˮ. CRED-UNamur, Working Paper, 7.‏ https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.28171.77607

Gurrib, I. (2017). “An assessment of the potential VAT revenue collection for the United Arab Emiratesˮ. Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 10(3), 306-321.‏ https://doi.org/10.1080/17520843.2017.1321028

Hashemi, S. A., & Khoshkar, F. (2014). “Distributional effects and Income effects of value added tax at a rate of 9% on manufacturing sectorsˮ. Journal of New research approaches in management and accounting, 6(85), 208-231. [In Persian]. https://majournal.ir/index.php/ma/article/view/1205

Hybka, M. M. (2009). “VAT collection efficiency in Poland before and after accession to the European Union–a comparative analysisˮ. Ekonomika, 85, 7-18.‏ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228461318_VAT_COLLECTION_EFFICIENCY_IN_POLAND_BEFORE_AND_AFTER_ACCESSION_TO_THE_EUROPEAN_UNION-A_COMPARATIVE_ANALYSIS

Ibadin, P. O., & Oladipupo, A. O. (2015). “Indirect taxes and economic growth in Nigeriaˮ. Ekonomska misao i praksa, 2(2), 345-364.‏ https://hrcak.srce.hr/149640

James, Kathryn.(2015). The rise of the value-added tax. Cambridge University Press.‏ https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107358522

Jani, S., & Nikpey, V. (2022). “Analyzing Spatial Spillover Effects of Insecurity on Tourist Attraction among Iran Provincesˮ. Iranian Journal of Economic Studies, 10(2), 593-607.‏ https://doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2022.41327.1773

Kalaš, B., Mirović, V., & Andrašić, J. (2020). “Cointegration analysis of indirect taxes and economic growth in the Republic of Serbiaˮ. Anali Ekonomskog Fakulteta U Subotici, 44, 3-10. https://doi.org/10.5937/AnEkSub2044003K

Karimi Potanlar, S., & Khatibi, Y. (2020). “Effect of Value Added Tax (VAT) on Public Sector’s Economy Stability in Iran (with Promoting Ethics and Tax Culture Approach)ˮ. Journal of Ethics in Scince and Technology, 15(2), 70-75. [In Persian]. https://www.magiran.com/p2165599

Keen, M., & Lockwood, B. (2010). “The value added tax: Its causes and consequencesˮ. Journal of Development Economics, 92(2), 138-151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2009.01.012

Kotlinska, J., Zukowski, M., Marzec, P., Kuspit, J., & Blasiak, Z. A. (2020). “Household consumption and VAT revenue in Polandˮ. European Research Studies Journal, 23(4), 557-572. https://doi.org/10.35808/ersj/1843

Leuthold, J. H. (1991). “Tax shares in developing economies a panel studyˮ. Journal of development Economics, 35(1), 173-185.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(91)90072-4

Lewis, C. (2019). Raising more public revenue in Indonesia in a growth- and equity-friendly way (OECD Taxation Working Paper No. 45). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/a487771f-en

Liu, H., & Zhao, Y. (2023). “Spillover effects of VAT Self-enforcement properties: Evidence based on the replacement of business tax with VAT reformˮ . China Journal of Accounting Research, 16(1), 100282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cjar.2022.100282

Mahadianto, M. Y., Siregar, N. F., Rahayu, D. B., Muna, A., & Musyaffi, A. M. (2019, May). “Could Economic Growth and Inflation Affect the Acceptance of Value Added Taxes?ˮ In 1st International Conference on Economics, Business, Entrepreneurship, and Finance (ICEBEF 2018), 376-381. Atlantis Press. https://doi.org/10.2991/icebef-18.2019.84

Majidi, A. F., Najafizadeh, S. F., & Amidi, S. (2018). “Common Currency and Bilateral Trade: A spatial econometrics Approachˮ.  Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research, 8(4), 206-216.‏ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337023063_Common_Currency_and_Bilateral_Trade_A_spatial_econometrics_Approach

Martinho, M. C. P. S. (2015). Determinants of VAT rate: evidence from 27 EU countries. Master's thesis. http://hdl.handle.net/10071/11470

Maulid, L. C., Bawono, I. R., & Sudibyo, Y. A. (2022). “Analysis of Causality among Tax Revenue, State Expenditure, Inflation, and Economic Growth in Indonesia between 1973 and 2019ˮ. Public Policy and Administration, 21(1). https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ppaa.21.1.29950

Mohajeri, P. (2019). “Evaluating the capacity of value-added tax in the regions using the multi-regional input-output modelˮ. Iranian Economic Development Analyses, 6(2), 9-30. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22051/edp.2019.25314.1200

Najafizadeh, S. F. , Alizadeh, M., & Delfan, M. (2024). “An analysis of factors affecting value-added tax: a spatial econometric approachˮ. Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics (JQE). [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2024.45885.2605

Obiakor, R., Kwarbai, J., & Okwu, A. (2015). “Value Added Tax and Consumption Expenditure Behavior of Households in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigationˮ. International Review of Social Sciences, 3(6).‏ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299585242_Value_Added_Tax_and_Consumption_Expenditure_Behaviour_of_Households_in_Nigeria_An_Empirical_Investigation

OECD .(2012). National Accounts of OECD Countries. OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/2221433x

Pietrzak, M. B. (2010). “Application of economic distance for the purposes of a spatial analysis of the unemployment rate for Polandˮ. Oeconomia Copernicana, 1(1), 79-98.‏ https://doi.org/10.12775/OeC.2010.005

Randiyanto, R. G., Syaharani, F. K., & Anand, D. (2025). “The Effect of Inflation Rate, Interest Rate and Rupiah Exchange Rate on Value Added Tax (VAT) Revenue at KPP Pratama Cirebon 1 Period 2021-2024ˮ. Journal of Accounting and Finance Management, 6(3), 1195-1206. https://doi.org/10.38035/jafm.v6i3

Sarmento, J. (2016). “The determinants of value added tax revenues in the European Unionˮ. The European Journal of Management Studies,, 21(2), 79-99.‏ http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/13580

Sayari, K. T., Jassem, S., & Sahar, E. (2023). “VAT Revenue and Economic Growth in the Middle East and North Africa Region: Evidence from Panel Data Analysisˮ. Journal of Tax Reform, 9(2), 233-245. https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2023.9.2.139

Setiyaningsih, W. A. A., & Khoirunurrofik, K. (2022). “Household consumption expenditures and the performance of provincial VAT revenue in Indonesiaˮ.  Sebelas Maret Business Review, 7(1), 11-25. https://doi.org/10.20961/smbr.v7i1.61014

Sherkat, A., Banouei, A., Nasiri, A. A., & Jahangard, E. (2021). “Identifying Propellant Regions and Activities in Generating Potential VAT Capacityˮ. Quarterly Journal of Economic Modeling, 56(15), 15-30. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.30495/eco.2022.1943985.2588

Sihotang, N., Salsabila, A., Putra, F. N., Nurrahmah, H., & Nugraha, V. Y. (2025). “Predictive Analysis of VAT Revenue in 2025: The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on VAT Revenueˮ. Journal of Applied Accounting and Sustainable Finance, 1(2), 142-166. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.373295

Silva, C. (2016). The determinants of value added tax revenues in Portugal. Master's thesis. ISEG – Lisbon School of Economics and Management. https://www.repository.utl.pt/handle/10400.5/12454

Simarmata, M. M. (2018). “ Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Pajak Pertambahan Nilai dan Pajak Penjualan Atas Barang Mewah Di Indonesiaˮ. Quantitative Economics Journal, 7(1).‏ https://doi.org/10.24114/qej.v7i1.17549

Sobhanian, S. M. , Memarian, M. H. and bahri, P. (2020). “ The Effect of Value Added Tax on GDP growth in Iranˮ. Economic Strategy, 9(35), 325-358. [In Persian]. https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_130156.html?lang=en

Tabulo, E. T., Freeman, A. A., & Adewale, E. A. (2025). “Value Added Tax and Household Consumption Expenditure Among Selected Ecowas Countriesˮ. International Journal of Social Science, Management and Economics Research, 3(4), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.61421/IJSSMER.2025.3401

Tanzi, V. (2011). “Tax systems in the OECD: recent evolution, competition and convergenceˮ. The Elgar Guide to Tax Systems, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing, 11-36. https://www.elgaronline.com/view/9780857933881.00008.xml.

Triastuti, D., & Pratomo, D. (2016). “Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Belanja Pembangunan/Modal, Dan Tingkat Inflasi Terhadap Penerimaan Pajak Daerah (Studi pada Pemerintah Daerah Kota Bandung Periode 2007-2014ˮ. eProceedings of Management, 3(1). https://openlibrarypublications.telkomuniversity.ac.id/index.php/management/article/view/3026/2871

Vega, S. H., & Elhorst, J. P. (2014). “Modelling regional labour market dynamics in space and timeˮ. Papers in Regional Science, 93(4), 819-841.‏ https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12018

Wawire, N. (2017). “Determinants of value added tax revenue in Kenyaˮ. Journal of Economics Library, 4(3), 322-344.

Wijaya, S., Subiyantoro, H., & Sutrisno, S. (2024). “Economic Sector Contribution and Tax Revenue: Does Per Capita Income Have a Role?ˮ KnE Social Sciences, 545-555. https://doi.org/10.18502/kss.v9i19.16546