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Analysis of Temperature Trends and Thermal Anomalies in the Karun Basin Using ERA5-Land Data and Cloud Computing | ||
| فناوری های پیشرفته در بهره وری آب | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 21 شهریور 1405 | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22126/atwe.2026.14079.1220 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| حسن ترابی* | ||
| دانشگاه لرستان | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Objective: This study analyzes multi‑decadal temperature trends and thermal anomalies in the Karun River Basin using a 76‑year climate record. It examines long‑term changes in minimum (Tmin), maximum (Tmax), and mean (Tmean) temperatures and evaluates thermal stress patterns relevant to climate adaptation and water management. Method: A total of 27,758 daily temperature records from the ERA5‑Land dataset (1950–2025) were extracted using Google Earth Engine and analyzed in Python. Trends were detected using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. To address serial autocorrelation, Pre‑Whitening (PW), Trend‑Free Pre‑Whitening (TFPW), and the Variance Correction Approach (VCA) were applied at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. Results: A statistically significant warming trend (P < 0.01) was identified in all temperature variables, with faster increases after 2000. Annual Z‑scores reached 5.40 for Tmax, 6.38 for Tmean, and 7.13 for Tmin, indicating a clear upward shift. Mean temperatures were 21.21 °C for Tmax, 15.35 °C for Tmean, and 8.80 °C for Tmin. Thermal stress analysis showed a basin‑wide stress rate of 0.20, with Tmin exhibiting the highest sensitivity and most frequent positive anomalies. Seasonal analysis indicated stronger warming and more persistent heat events in spring and summer. Conclusion: The Karun Basin has experienced a persistent warming trend over the past 76 years, intensifying in the 21st century. These changes may accelerate snowmelt in the Zagros highlands, alter hydrological timing, and increase evapotranspiration, highlighting the need for adaptive water management and improved reservoir operation strategies. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Climate change, Mean temperature anomaly, Karun River Basin, ERA5‑Land dataset, Mann&ndash؛ Kendall trend analysis | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 3 |
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