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Copula-Based Bivariate Flood Frequency Analysis in the Kashafrood River Basin, Iran | ||
| فناوری های پیشرفته در بهره وری آب | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 11 مهر 1405 | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22126/atwe.2026.14475.1234 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سمیه صالحی1؛ مسعود رضا حسامی کرمانی2؛ محمد رسول عباسی* 3 | ||
| 1گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه شهید باهنرکرمان، ایران | ||
| 2گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، ایران | ||
| 3گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Reliable flood-risk assessment at river confluences requires an appropriate representation of the joint behavior of flood flows from interconnected tributaries. Conventional univariate flood frequency analysis does not explicitly account for the dependence between tributary flood peaks, which may limit its applicability to complex river systems. This study develops a copula-based bivariate flood frequency analysis for the Kardeh and Radkan stations in the Kashafrood River basin, northeastern Iran, using 30 years of annual maximum peak-flow data. The marginal distributions of the two peak-flow series were evaluated using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér–von Mises goodness-of-fit tests, and their dependence structure was examined using Kendall’s tau and Spearman’s rho. Four Archimedean copula families were subsequently evaluated to model the joint behavior of the two series. The results indicated a positive association between the peak-flow series, although the rank correlations were not statistically significant at the 0.05 level. Among the evaluated copula families, the Clayton copula provided the best goodness-of-fit and was selected to represent the dependence structure between the two stations. Joint flood probabilities and return periods were then estimated for selected combinations of peak-flow thresholds. The results demonstrate the importance of considering the joint behavior of tributary flood flows when assessing flood risk at river confluences. The proposed bivariate copula-based framework provides useful information for joint flood-frequency analysis and can support flood-risk assessment and the planning and design of hydraulic structures in interconnected river systems. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| Bivariate flood frequency analysis؛ Copula؛ Annual maximum flow؛ Joint return period؛ Kashafrood River Basin | ||
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